Spawn, shiny and Alpha rates
Know your chances, understand your boosts and plan your next hunt. Every number on this page comes from the game’s own code, checked on 26 October 2026.
How to read the numbers: “1 in 3,000” is the chance on each try. On average it happens once every 3,000 tries, but it isn’t a countdown: you can get lucky on your first try, or need many more.
Whether a rare Pokémon appears, whether it is shiny and whether it is an Alpha are three separate rolls. The sections below take them one at a time.
What are you hunting?
How a wild Pokémon is picked
Section titled “How a wild Pokémon is picked”Every time you meet a wild Pokémon, the game decides three things in order:
-
Its rarity. Common, Uncommon, Rare, Very Rare, Ultra Rare or Legendary. Only rarities that can appear where you are count: on that map, at that time of day, and the way you met it (in the grass, surfing or fishing).
-
Which Pokémon. One of the Pokémon of that rarity on the map.
-
What kind. Separate rolls decide whether it is shiny, whether it is an Alpha, and, during events, whether it appears in its event form.
So a boost that brings rare Pokémon more often doesn’t change the shiny chance of each Pokémon, but it gives you more tries at the one you want.
Which boost helps what
Section titled “Which boost helps what”| Boost | What it improves | Where it works |
|---|---|---|
 Lure |
Rare and rarer Pokémon appear more often | The map it’s used on, for everyone there, for 60 minutes |
 Premium Lure |
The same as a Lure, and Alphas too | The same as a Lure |
| Luck Protection | Ultra Rare and Legendary Pokémon, more the longer you go without one | You, automatically |
| Fishing bait | One group of rarities while fishing | Your fishing |
| Membership | Shiny odds | You, on wild Pokémon and chests |
 Shiny Charm |
Shiny odds | The whole server, for 3 hours, on wild Pokémon and chests |
 Shiny Tracker |
Shiny odds for the one Pokémon you track | You, on that Pokémon at its rarity |
| Swarm | More Hordes, more Alphas, and special Pokémon | One map, for 1 hour |
 Pure Nectar |
More and bigger Hordes | Your solo encounters on land |
| Event Charm | Event forms | The whole server, for 3 hours, during events |
Which boosts stack?
- Finding a rare Pokémon: Lures, Luck Protection and fishing bait multiply each other.
- Finding a shiny: Membership, a Shiny Charm and a Shiny Tracker all work together.
- Finding an Alpha: Premium Lures and a Swarm add up, to twice the normal odds at most.
Shiny odds
Section titled “Shiny odds”Every wild Pokémon, and every Pokémon from a chest, can be shiny. Without help, the odds are the same whatever the rarity: 1 in 16,000. Membership and a Shiny Charm each cut those odds by a quarter:
| You have | Shiny odds |
|---|---|
| Nothing | 1 in 16,000 |
| Membership | 1 in 12,000 |
| A Shiny Charm running | 1 in 12,000 |
| Both | 1 in 9,000 |
A Shiny Charm works for the whole server for 3 hours, and only one can run at a time. It doesn’t change rarity or Alpha odds.
The Shiny Tracker
Section titled “The Shiny Tracker”The Shiny Tracker is the biggest shiny boost by far, but it works on one Pokémon at a time:
-
Pick a Pokémon to track. The tracker works on that Pokémon at its rarity.
-
Catch it again and again. Each one you catch makes its shiny more likely. At 100 catches the tracker is full.
-
Keep going if you need to. An Ultra Rare hunt that reaches 200 catches, or a Legendary hunt that reaches 150, gets double shiny odds until it finds the shiny. This “past the odds” bonus works on wild Pokémon only.
With Focus on, whenever you roll your target’s rarity on a map where it spawns at that rarity, you get your target instead of another Pokémon. See the Shiny Tracker for how to use it.
Shiny odds at 100 tracker catches
Section titled “Shiny odds at 100 tracker catches”Conditions: wild Pokémon, tracker full (100 catches).
| Rarity | With Membership | With Membership and a Shiny Charm | Past the odds (×2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 10,665 | 1 in 7,999 | — |
| Uncommon | 1 in 8,400 | 1 in 6,300 | — |
| Rare | 1 in 2,667 | 1 in 2,000 | — |
| Very Rare | 1 in 1,000 | 1 in 750 | — |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 133 | 1 in 100 | 1 in 50 at 200 catches |
| Legendary | 1 in 67 | 1 in 50 | 1 in 25 at 150 catches |
The rarer the Pokémon, the more the tracker helps: with Membership and a Shiny Charm, a Legendary goes from 1 in 9,000 at 0 catches to 1 in 50 at 100, while a Common only reaches 1 in 7,999.
Full tracker without Membership or a Shiny Charm
| Rarity | Shiny odds |
|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 14,220 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 11,200 |
| Rare | 1 in 3,556 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 1,333 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 178 |
| Legendary | 1 in 89 |
Catch by catch
Section titled “Catch by catch”The tracker doesn’t jump straight to its best odds. These tables show how your odds improve as you catch more. An Ultra Rare hunt improves slowly at first and fast near the end.
Tracker progress with Membership and a Shiny Charm
| Rarity | 0 catches | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 8,739 | 1 in 8,485 | 1 in 8,238 | 1 in 7,999 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 8,232 | 1 in 7,530 | 1 in 6,888 | 1 in 6,300 |
| Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 6,179 | 1 in 4,243 | 1 in 2,913 | 1 in 2,000 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 4,836 | 1 in 2,598 | 1 in 1,396 | 1 in 750 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 8,389 | 1 in 5,128 | 1 in 1,348 | 1 in 100 |
| Legendary | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 2,457 | 1 in 671 | 1 in 183 | 1 in 50 |
Tracker progress with Membership only
| Rarity | 0 catches | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 11,651 | 1 in 11,313 | 1 in 10,984 | 1 in 10,665 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 10,976 | 1 in 10,040 | 1 in 9,183 | 1 in 8,400 |
| Rare | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 8,239 | 1 in 5,657 | 1 in 3,884 | 1 in 2,667 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 6,447 | 1 in 3,464 | 1 in 1,861 | 1 in 1,000 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 11,185 | 1 in 6,838 | 1 in 1,798 | 1 in 133 |
| Legendary | 1 in 12,000 | 1 in 3,276 | 1 in 894 | 1 in 244 | 1 in 67 |
Chests and wild Pokémon
Section titled “Chests and wild Pokémon”Pokémon from chests can be shiny too, and the Shiny Tracker, Membership and a Shiny Charm all work on them. Lures, Luck Protection, bait and the past-the-odds bonus don’t. A chest’s odds climb in even steps to its own best odds, which beat wild odds for Commons, Uncommons and Very Rares.
Conditions: tracker full (100 catches), Membership and a Shiny Charm.
| Rarity | Wild | From a chest |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 7,999 | 1 in 2,000 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 6,300 | 1 in 2,500 |
| Rare | 1 in 2,000 | 1 in 2,400 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 750 | 1 in 680 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 100 | 1 in 140 |
| Legendary | 1 in 50 | 1 in 100 |
Chest odds by tracker progress (Membership and a Shiny Charm)
| Rarity | 0 catches | 25 | 50 | 75 | 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 7,250 | 1 in 5,500 | 1 in 3,750 | 1 in 2,000 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 7,375 | 1 in 5,750 | 1 in 4,125 | 1 in 2,500 |
| Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 7,350 | 1 in 5,700 | 1 in 4,050 | 1 in 2,400 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 6,920 | 1 in 4,840 | 1 in 2,760 | 1 in 680 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 6,785 | 1 in 4,570 | 1 in 2,355 | 1 in 140 |
| Legendary | 1 in 9,000 | 1 in 6,775 | 1 in 4,550 | 1 in 2,325 | 1 in 100 |
Rare spawns
Section titled “Rare spawns”How often each rarity appears, with no boosts:
| Rarity | How often it appears |
|---|---|
| Common | 93 in 100 encounters |
| Uncommon | 1 in 20 |
| Rare | 1 in 75 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 300 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 3,000 |
| Legendary | 1 in 30,000 |
So on a map with an Ultra Rare, roughly one wild Pokémon in every 3,000 is Ultra Rare. Lures, Luck Protection and bait improve this, and they multiply each other.
Lures and Premium Lures
Section titled “Lures and Premium Lures”Use a Lure or Premium Lure on a map, and Rare, Very Rare, Ultra Rare and Legendary Pokémon appear more often there, for everyone on the map. Common and Uncommon Pokémon are not boosted.
| Lures on the map | Boost |
|---|---|
| 1 | +30% |
| 2 | +60% |
| 3 | +120% |
- A Lure lasts 60 minutes. Up to 3 can run on one map at once, and they stack.
- A Premium Lure does the same, and each one also makes Alphas 25% more likely, up to +75% with three.
Example: with 3 Lures running, an Ultra Rare comes 1 in 1,364 instead of 1 in 3,000.
Luck Protection
Section titled “Luck Protection”Luck Protection works automatically: Ultra Rare and Legendary Pokémon come more often the longer you go without meeting one. Ultra Rare and Legendary each have their own bar, which fills as you battle on maps where that rarity can appear:
- 2 points for each wild Pokémon you knock out, or face in a battle you lose or tie
- 1 point for each one you catch or flee from
| Bar | Ultra Rare bar | Legendary bar | Boost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half full | 1,500 points | 15,000 points | +50% |
| Full | 3,000 points | 30,000 points | +100% |
| Overcharge | every 1,000 more | every 10,000 more | +125%, then +150%, then +200% |
Meeting a Pokémon of that rarity empties its bar.
Example: with a full bar, an Ultra Rare comes 1 in 1,500. At Overcharge’s last step, 1 in 1,000.
Fishing baits
Section titled “Fishing baits”A bait boosts one group of rarities by +50%, only while fishing.
| Bait | Boosts | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
 Basic Bait |
Rare and Very Rare | 500 fishing encounters |
 Enhanced Bait |
Ultra Rare | 1,000 fishing encounters |
 Mythic Bait |
Legendary | 1,500 fishing encounters |
- You can use one bait at a time.
- Baits need fishing level 60 and a
Super Rod, 
Mythic Rod or 
Aether Rod.
Example: with an Enhanced Bait, an Ultra Rare comes 1 in 2,000 while fishing. With a Mythic Bait, a Legendary comes 1 in 20,000.
All spawn boosts together
Section titled “All spawn boosts together”| What’s running | Ultra Rare | Legendary |
|---|---|---|
| Nothing | 1 in 3,000 | 1 in 30,000 |
| 3 Lures | 1 in 1,364 | 1 in 13,636 |
| 3 Lures and a full Luck Protection bar | 1 in 682 | 1 in 6,818 |
| 3 Lures and Overcharge’s last step | 1 in 455 | 1 in 4,545 |
| All of that, fishing with the matching bait (Enhanced Bait for Ultra Rare, Mythic Bait for Legendary) | 1 in 303 | 1 in 3,030 |
Hordes and Pure Nectar
Section titled “Hordes and Pure Nectar”A Horde is one encounter with several wild Pokémon. Every Pokémon in it rolls its own rarity, shiny and Alpha, so a Horde of 5 counts as 5 tries.
| Horde chance | Per encounter |
|---|---|
| Normal | 1 in 100 |
| During a Swarm | 1 in 50 |
| With Pure Nectar |
1 in 25 |
| Pure Nectar during a Swarm | 1 in 12.5 |
- Hordes need the Horde research unlocked.
- A Horde has 2–3 Pokémon, or 4–5 with Pure Nectar.
- Pure Nectar works only on land, and lasts your next 750 solo land encounters.
Swarms
Section titled “Swarms”During a Swarm, special Pokémon appear on one map for an hour.
- Automatic Swarms start every 10–24 hours. A
Swarm Flute starts one on your map. - Swarm Pokémon only appear while the Swarm runs.
- While it runs, Hordes are twice as likely and Alphas are 25% more likely on that map.
Alpha Pokémon
Section titled “Alpha Pokémon”An Alpha is a rare, stronger version of a wild Pokémon. Its IVs are 15–31 each (20–31 if it is also shiny), and two of them are always 31.
Every wild Pokémon rolls for Alpha separately from shiny, so a Pokémon can be both. Chests and trades never give Alphas.
| Rarity | Alpha odds | With the best boosts (×2) |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 50,000 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 14,000 | 1 in 7,000 |
| Rare | 1 in 5,200 | 1 in 2,600 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 2,340 | 1 in 1,170 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 332 | 1 in 166 |
| Legendary | 1 in 108 | 1 in 54 |
What boosts Alphas: each Premium Lure on the map adds +25% (up to +75% with three), and a Swarm on the map adds +25%. Together that doubles the odds. The Shiny Tracker, Membership and a Shiny Charm don’t affect Alphas.
Alpha or shiny: which is easier?
Section titled “Alpha or shiny: which is easier?”An Alpha can be any Pokémon of its rarity, while a Shiny Tracker only helps one. So the answer depends on whether you are hunting with a full Shiny Tracker:
| Rarity | Alpha vs shiny, no tracker | Alpha vs shiny, full tracker and Membership |
|---|---|---|
| Common | Alpha 6.3× harder | Alpha 9.4× harder |
| Uncommon | About the same | Alpha 1.7× harder |
| Rare | Alpha 3.1× easier | Alpha 2× harder |
| Very Rare | Alpha 6.8× easier | Alpha 2.3× harder |
| Ultra Rare | Alpha 48× easier | Alpha 2.5× harder |
| Legendary | Alpha 148× easier | Alpha 1.6× harder |
In short: without a tracker, Alphas are easier than shinies from Rare up. With a full tracker and Membership, the shiny is easier at every rarity: 1.6–2.5× from Uncommon to Legendary, and 9.4× for Commons.
Event forms
Section titled “Event forms”During events, Pokémon that have an event form can appear in it. Some event Pokémon have their own chance; this is the usual one:
| Rarity | Wild | Wild with an Event Charm | From a chest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 1 in 750 | 1 in 563 | 1 in 3,000 |
| Uncommon | 1 in 80 | 1 in 60 | 1 in 80 |
| Rare | 1 in 40 | 1 in 30 | 1 in 40 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 10 | 1 in 7.5 | 1 in 6 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 6 | 1 in 4.5 | 1 in 3 |
| Legendary | 1 in 2 | 1 in 1.5 | Always |
An Event Charm cuts the event-form odds by a quarter for the whole server, for 3 hours, on wild Pokémon only. It only works during events. Event forms are never shiny.
How long a hunt takes
Section titled “How long a hunt takes”Putting it all together: about how many encounters it takes, on average, to meet an Alpha or a shiny of each rarity from Uncommon up. This counts every encounter on a map where that rarity appears, with no Lures or Luck Protection, so it combines how often the rarity appears with the Alpha or shiny odds. The full-tracker column assumes Focus is on, so every Pokémon of that rarity you meet is your target.
| Rarity | An Alpha | A shiny, no tracker | A shiny, full tracker and Membership |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncommon | 1 in 280,000 | 1 in 320,000 | 1 in 168,000 |
| Rare | 1 in 390,000 | 1 in 1.2 million | 1 in 200,000 |
| Very Rare | 1 in 702,000 | 1 in 4.8 million | 1 in 300,000 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 996,000 | 1 in 48 million | 1 in 400,000 |
| Legendary | 1 in 3.2 million | 1 in 480 million | 1 in 2 million |
This is why the tools matter: Lures and Luck Protection bring the rarity more often, which speeds up Alphas and shinies alike, and Focus turns those encounters into the Pokémon you are tracking.